Have you heard
about it? It's all over the
news. It's a disaster waiting to
happen and storm flags have been raised.
Its warnings are getting more and more intense and the language is
virtually biblical. It could be
the end of the world if some are to be believed. It has produced a bumper crop of Chicken Little's convinced
the sky is falling. What is this
cataclysm which we must avoid at all costs? What is this threat to all we hold dear in this nation?
If nothing is done to stop it, a fiscal "Armageddon" will
befall this country on Dec. 31, 2012.
On that date, the massive tax cuts passed by George Bush, cuts which
dropped rates to levels not seen since the 50's, will end and rates will rise
back to the levels they were when Bill Clinton was president. The payroll tax cut will also end and
across the board cuts will occur throughout the federal budget including the
War Department. This
"sequestration" of funds was part of the bi-partisan deal to raise
the debt ceiling. (Vice
Presidential candidate Paul Ryan supported and voted for the deal.)
Moody's Investment Services says it could downgrade the nation's credit
rating if this comes to pass. (This
is a strange turn of events because Moody's last downgrade was because the U.S.
wasn't cutting spending and dealing with an out of control fiscal
emergency. Now they are going to
cut it because the U.S. is cutting too much?) Economists tell us if this plan is allowed to go into
effect, economic growth will suffer.
As much as 1% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) could be lost if the tax
cuts and sequestration are allowed to occur. We are told this is a cliff which we must avoid at all
costs. It's the Y2K fear all over
again, but worse. We must do
everything we can to avoid this economic black hole. Are you scared yet?
Would it be heresy to suggest we do nothing and let all of this come to
pass? Would it be sheer lunacy to
propose this could be a good thing in disguise...that the results could be the
best thing to happen to Washington and Congress, the White House and us? If the Bush tax cuts are allowed to
expire, billions of dollars in revenue will flow into the treasury. Tax rates under Bill Clinton were so
odious and oppressive over 20 million jobs were created, we had 8 years of prosperity
and a budget surplus when he left office.
Sounds horrible to me. The
cut in the payroll tax was a stimulant for the economy, but it threatens the
fiscal health of Social Security and it too needs to be restored. Sequestration would result in across-the-board
cuts in discretionary spending including the budget for the War
Department. This is a budget which
has seen massive increases over the last 10-15 years and the cuts proposed
wouldn't even bring the department's budget back to Clinton era levels. We spend more on the military than all
other nations on earth combined.
What would January 1, 2013 look like if we dove off this cliff
headfirst? First, it wouldn't
matter if Congress stays deadlocked for four years after this date. It wouldn't matter if Democrats and
Republicans couldn't agree on a thing.
The obstructionist tactics of Boehner, Cantor and McConnell would be
rendered impotent because massive deficit reforms would be in place. Government would be automatically
smaller. Revenue into the treasury
would explode. The deficit, which
everyone agrees must be addressed, would be reduced and the trend lines would
continue a downward curve. Republican
arguments about gutting Medicare and Medicaid would evaporate, as deficit
projections would decline.
Congress could fail to pass any appropriation bills, and the nation's
fiscal health would still improve.
Yes, economic growth might slow, but it would still grow and the major
obstacle to future growth, the deficit and debt, would have been addressed in a
serious manner. In fact, if
Congress could not agree on anything, the benefits of the tax increases and
spending cuts would grow faster and faster as economic growth picks up.
The reality is Congress would start to debate ways to cut some taxes and
hold hearings on how to spend the increased sums flowing into government
coffers. There would be no
motivation to obstruct. Just the
opposite would happen. The
motivation now would be to cooperate.
Refusing to work with President Obama would not do Republicans any
good. Democrats would not have any
reason to find bi-partisan solutions to economic problems. Republicans would be looking for ways
to cut taxes while Democrats would be proposing spending projects for
infrastructure and education and the two would meet in the middle.
Letting fiscal "Armageddon" happen...jumping off that cliff
would make it easier to find more deficit reductions. The curve wouldn't have to be so steep; the cuts wouldn't
have to be so radical and deep.
I am here to tell you this is a win/win proposition. It scares the hell out of politicians
because it doesn't require them to "do" anything, which they are very
good at, and yet the nation benefits.
A war machine which has been on meth for far too many years will have to
realistically prioritize and won't be able to demand such a large piece of the
fiscal pie. It's so
beautiful. The military budget is
cut and Congress doesn't have to "do" a thing but watch. The more you look at this, the less
crazy it gets and that's the reason Washington can't let it happen.
We need to call, write, text or email members of Congress and just use
one word...JUMP. We need to let
the laws of unintended consequences take over. This "situation" was never supposed to really
happen. Yet, if it does, this
nation's fiscal foundations will be in better shape...the political language of
obstructionism will be eliminated...Congress will have no excuse or motivation anymore
to avoid working and become part of the solution instead of the problem. (This year Congress did not pass even
one of the 13 appropriation bills necessary to run the country.)
It is counterintuitive to go and run and jump off a cliff with the
belief it will benefit you. In
this case we need to "jump" and radically change how Washington does
business. I love it.
Bernie,
ReplyDeleteThanks for explaining what the fiscal cliff is. From what I've heard from the media it sounded like the end of the world. If it is simply what you say (which I'm sure is true), it sounds like the best news in a long time. A real tax strategy (progrssive tax rates that go into the millions, a "robin hood" tax on stocks, an effective estate tax strategy, etc.) that could net hundreds of billions and real stimulative spending would be much better, but this fiscal cliff will have to do.
Thanks, Bernie!
ReplyDeleteyes thank you bernie very much. still miss you out here in the south bay Gilroy area.
ReplyDeletepeace nd stay safe in there.
Mike Ramirez Gilroy Ca.